Select Page

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Thursday Night Football Preview

Thursday Night Football Showdown

As the NFL’s Week 6 kicks off, the focus shifts to an intriguing Thursday Night Football clash between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. Matt Temple-Marsh takes a closer look at this matchup.

NFL Betting Tips

  • 2pts Kansas City Chiefs to score over 34.5 points at 23/10 (bet365)
  • 1.5pts Isiah Pacheco over 100+ rushing yards at 39/10 (bet365)
  • 1pt Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 & over 51.5 total match points at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
  • 1pt Isiah Pacheco to score a brace at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

Game Details

  • Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
  • Kick-off time: Friday, 0115 BST
  • TV: Sky Sports Main Event
  • Spread: Chiefs -10.5 @ 5/6
  • Total: Over 47.5 @ 5/6

The Broncos’ Struggles

The Denver Broncos find themselves among the NFL’s weakest teams, marred by a historically poor defense. Their defense, by the numbers (DVOA statistics), is the worst in NFL history over the first five games, conceding a staggering 181 points (36.2 per game). They’ve had their struggles, including a 70-point game against the Dolphins. In their recent games, they blew a 28-point lead to the Bears and conceded 31 points to the Jets, neither of which are considered top 10 offenses in the NFL.

Furthermore, the Broncos have yet to cover the spread this season (0-4-1), and their games have mostly gone over the point total. Now, they face the daunting task of traveling to Kansas City to take on the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes, with a double-digit handicap of 10.5 points. The Chiefs have won their last 15 meetings against the Broncos, establishing their dominance in this rivalry.

Broncos’ Vulnerable Defense

Despite potential concerns for the Chiefs regarding injuries and wide receiver issues, the Broncos’ defensive struggles are glaring:

  • 36.2 PPG (32nd)
  • 450.6 Total YPG (32nd)
  • 187.6 Rushing YPG (32nd)
  • 5.9 Rushing yards per carry (32nd)
  • 263 Passing YPG (29th)
  • 124.6 QBR (32nd)
  • 12 Sacks (21st)

The Broncos’ defense must now face Patrick Mahomes, who many consider the NFL’s greatest quarterback. While Mahomes’ supporting cast may not be the strongest he’s had, the Broncos’ porous defense suggests that the Chiefs could easily score 35+ points, making the bet at 23/10 appealing.

Isiah Pacheco’s Rushing Potential

In recent weeks, running backs have excelled against the Broncos’ defense. Isiah Pacheco is the Broncos’ lead running back, with a significant number of carries this season, putting him in a prime position to exploit the Broncos’ weaknesses. Pacheco has posted 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the past two weeks, making the bet for over 100 rushing yards at 39/10 a value pick.

The proposition of Pacheco scoring a brace at 4/1 is also enticing, given the positive game script anticipated, with the Chiefs dominating the game, leading to more rushing attempts and scoring opportunities for Pacheco.

The Bigger Picture

Despite Russell Wilson’s strong individual performance, the Broncos are in disarray. A potential fire sale is looming, with the franchise considering trading star players like Patrick Surtain as they rebuild from the ground up.

On a short week, the Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes and coached by Andy Reid, are expected to handle business as usual.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 37-17 Broncos

Published at 2035 BST on October 10, 2023

Safer Gambling

We are dedicated to supporting safer gambling. Our recommended bets are for individuals over the age of 18, and we strongly urge readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.